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An ICT Technology Outlook study in Hungary
The Hungarian National Council for Communications and Information Technology launched an ICT technology assessment and forecasting project in 2005. Decision makers receive the results of this project: technology analysis studies called “deep drills”, application area studies with scenarios called visions and also a bimonthly Panorama with commented short news. There is a community of 40-50 professionals discussing the newly prepared studies, commenting and using them for consulting and for higher education.
At first we had to define the scope of the project and cut into twelve key areas: Basic studies, Communication, Peripherals, System design, Application frameworks, Content management on the technology supply side while Business, Public sector and Home usage cover the demand side, and System development, Security and Regulations are included as cross-cutting issues. The main parts of each key area are shortly described indicating possible disruptions. Then cross effects are outlined: impacts of the key areas on each other.
Technology analysis studies have a defined template in order to concentrate on the huge amount of information processed. The first sentence is the thesis, it must have a main message for the reader: what do we expect in the future, why is this important for us? The further parts of the study show the scope, the current status, the ongoing research, the most probable future trends, analysis of the main drivers and impacts and the specialities in Hungary.
Thirty one such studies have been prepared on the following technology supply topics:
- Basics: Unlimited bandwidth and computing power, Biology and informatics, Nanoelectronics, Plastronics, - Communication: Future of Internet, Next Generation Networks, IP based television, Radiofrequency identifications, - Peripherals: End-user devices, Flexible man-machine interface, Personal identification, ICT implants, Sensor systems, Embedded systems, - System design: IT Utilities, Privacy enhancing technologies, Service oriented applications development, Agent technologies, Long term archiving, Security focused design, - Application frameworks: Semantic technologies, Text analysis, Business intelligence, Mobile robots, Location determination technologies, - Content management: Web 2.0, Collective content providing, P2P and its influences, Intellectual public goods, Virtual presence and virtual worlds, Online multiplayer games.
The preparation of the vision of an application area needs more sophisticated approach: beside technology supply, changes of the demand should also be examined. These changes depend on different drivers, and the forecast should be based on the drivers. The more certain drivers lead to the core vision, the uncertain ones lead to different scenarios. Selecting one social and another driver from the technical ones is a practical choice leading to four scenarios. Visions are illustrated by narratives as a feedback.
A collection of the thirty two detailed studies was published by a leading Hungarian publisher in December 2008. All materials are available on our interactive website www.nhit-it3.hu (mostly in Hungarian)
Links and Documents
IT3 Panorama
As a useful by-product, a bimonthly newsletter “IT3 Körkép” (IT3 panorama) is being published containing actual news items relevant to the topics of the project.
Contact
If you have any questions, request or just would like to share your ideas, please do not hesitate to contact us! it3@nhit-it3.hu
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